Veteran pollster and political analyst Lou DiNatale weighs in on the state primary [Q&A]

“I think the Republican brand currently is so badly tainted by Trump that a lot of unenrolled voters didn't bother to show up in a Republican primary.”

Read Time:9 Minute, 8 Second

Genevieve DiNatale
So, overall, what’s your take on the results of the primary?

Lou DiNatale
Well, first, I thought the turnout was surprisingly high, given the lack of a Democratic primary race. The fact that Maura Healey didn’t have an opponent, we assumed would kind of suppress turnout overall, and it really didn’t. It almost matched the same number four years ago. So, turnout was pretty good around the clock.

The overwhelming find here is the success of women candidates across the board, just sweeping the board. I mean, DiZoglio winning that seat against Dempsey. Dempsey was a Globe endorsed candidate for a secondary congressional constitutional seat. That usually is a passport to winning, when you get the Globe endorsement, and yet the female state senator was able to easily beat him and it was easy, it wasn’t close. So, there’s a real turnaround in Democratic primary politics and white males need not apply.

Genevieve DiNatale
So, what about the fact that Geoff Diehl won on the Republican side? Can you talk about that?
Doughty seemed like more of a fit because he was kind of like a “wannabe Mitt Romney,” a Mormon who was sort of moderate straight down the road kind of guy who was a businessman, right? A family man, that was his thing.

Lou DiNatale
Right.

Genevieve DiNatale
Why did he lose to Diehl?

Lou DiNatale
In order for a moderate Republican to win in a Republican Party dominated by Conservatives, they need to bring in a lot of unenrolled voters. And that is how Charlie Baker wins. That is how Mitt Romney won. That is how Bill Weld won. A lot of unenrolled voters coming in, and they’re the moderates that vote Republican.

I think the Republican brand currently is so badly tainted by Trump that a lot of unenrolled voters didn’t bother to show up in a Republican primary. And the other point would also be, since it appears that it’s a hopeless venture, i.e. a Republican beating a Democrat for governor, I don’t think there was a lot of enthusiasm for Doughy. So, I think the two key elements there were the Republican Party is so far to the right that unenrolled voters don’t bother to vote in the primaries any longer and the fact that Healey looked like a lock for winning probably discouraged a whole bunch of other unenrolled. That said, Diehl has his own credentials. He’s a fixture in the Republican primary world. He’s been around, he’s run for a number of different offices, and he’s a significant Trump supporter. So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that in a reduced Republican Party, I mean, they represent 9% of Massachusetts voters. That’s down to hardcore Conservatives. And it’s also clear that the Conservatives that used to be in the Democratic Party and are now in the Republican Party are unenrolled. Because the left wing of the Democratic Party certainly has ascendancy at this stage.

Genevieve DiNatale
So, what about Shannon Liss-Riordan losing to Andrea Campbell? How do you define her role here in this primary?

Lou DiNatale
Well, I’m just going to observe that it’s amazing to me that when there’s a qualified Black woman on the ballot, Massachusetts liberals can find a way to be with a white woman. And so, to me, it was never a close call, Campbell or Riordan. And in the numbers, it wasn’t a close call. The first survey before Riordan started spending any money, Campbell was ahead 28 to seven! She had it beat then, notwithstanding the fact that I’ve never seen $9 million dollars spent on an attorney general seat, that was $9 million versus Campbell’s $1.5 million.

Genevieve DiNatale
Wow.

Lou DiNatale
Yeah.

Genevieve DiNatale
You know that’s interesting because I noticed that she has less followers on Twitter than I do. So, I don’t know if it’s because she doesn’t understand the importance of publicity or what the deal is with her, because she’s run for office several times. Like, I think she ran for Senate and then she ran for some other office in Massachusetts.

Lou DiNatale
I hate wealthy candidates. All my life, I’ve had to deal with these wealthy candidates. Here’s somebody who’s never run for public office, but because they’ve made significant money in the private sector – and I don’t care how – they’re going to enter not the state rep race close to home, not the state senate race close to home, no US Senate! That’s the first job I want.

Genevieve DiNatale
Okay, but Liss-Riordan did work. She’s double Harvard. She worked for Bella Abzug in New York after she got out of Harvard undergrad and before she went back to Harvard to Harvard Law School. She was pivotal in the third wave feminist movement of the late 70s. She formed an organization with Rebecca Walker and other people involved in the feminist movement to help mobilize women. And then she’s done a lot of gig economy stuff. She went after, like, Uber and Lyft and FedEx and these other places that are taking advantage of their employees that were all contracted out. So, she has done important work as a labor attorney, and she made that money herself. So, I don’t understand the attack on her for that and why there wasn’t this kind of understanding of her as a sort of pivotal feminist.

Lou DiNatale
Well, generally speaking, people who work on behalf of the people don’t make $9 million dollars, don’t have savings that they can afford to spend $9 million dollars on. So, while she might have been a liberal, she certainly didn’t live a Democratic lifestyle, number one. Number two, Campbell’s credentials meet her credentials as much as anybody else, not to mention that she was a single mom, and she went to Princeton and she went to Harvard, and she got elected to Boston City Council and paid her dues, then she ran for statewide office. Not a close call. And $9 million dollars? Come on! Money to burn.

Genevieve DiNatale
So, what about Maura Healey? Do you think she’s a good shoe-in?

Lou DiNatale
I think that this is going to be closer than people expect. I think everybody expects Maura to roll in and blow away Diehl because he’s a Trumper, and God knows most Trumpers need to be blown away. But I think that in reality, Maura has had a very easy slide to the offices that she’s gained, DA, AG, and now governor.

Genevieve DiNatale
Why is that?

Lou DiNatale
Well, I think she’s had good timing and luck. That’s the nature of politics. Timing, luck, and the way the party changed in terms of both generational and gender, all right? She was able to take advantage of all those things, but I think it’s a pretty thin resume all the way along the way, to tell you the truth, to manage this stuff. She’s really running against Charlie Baker in a sense. Charlie Baker is loved by Democrats, has the highest rating of any Republican governor ever rated by Democrats. So, Baker is like a Democratic standard even though he failed to deal with the MBTA, he failed to deal with the state police, failed to deal with about a half a dozen issues on his watch, he’s been Teflon, okay? Now, it’s not clear she’s going to be Teflon, all right? And she’s going to be compared to Charlie because he was a previous governor. So, to a certain extent, she’s got real performance issues here, and she needs to find some way in the early stages of her administration to get it on the ground.

Genevieve DiNatale
You were saying that Liss-Riordan didn’t pay her dues and she wasn’t willing to hit the ground and do hyperlocal stuff politically. But, I mean, I kind of see that in Maura Healey, who’s always engaged in federal lawsuits and doesn’t seem to, as far as I can tell, I don’t know what she’s done for the state, aside from stop bill collectors from calling you during working hours.

Lou DiNatale
The attorney general, and you could talk to other people who worked in the AG’s office, like your mother, okay, really is not a prosecutorial place. It’s the state’s lawyer. All right? And so, they have purview over certain issues. As far as firsts, I believe she’s the first attorney general to ever become governor. That’s how bad the attorney general route used to be in terms of how you were able to do things.

Genevieve DiNatale
Why?

Lou DiNatale
Because you really didn’t have an opportunity to raise your visibility. You really didn’t have big cases. She was able to raise her visibility by Trump.

Genevieve DiNatale
Oh, interesting. Do you think that was strategic?

Lou DiNatale
Oh, they definitely knew it when they got Trump, but anybody would have done it. But see, the point here is that once Trump was elected president of the United States, okay, any Democratic attorney general in Massachusetts would have done exactly what Healey did.

Genevieve DiNatale
Right.

Lou DiNatale
It wasn’t that Healey thought of this and other people wouldn’t do it, but she had the courage to do it. No, that was the easy route down, to sue Trump 100 times, or however many times she did it, and the fastest way to the front page. But state government is different. It’s grinding, it’s details, and there are wins and losses, and I don’t think she’s ever managed the legislature. And a Democratic legislature does not like a Democratic governor. They hate Democratic governors.

Genevieve DiNatale
Why is that?

Lou DiNatale
Because the Democratic governor thinks the legislature needs to do what he says because he’s the governor and he’s a Democrat. Well, they don’t want to do what the governor says. They’ve got their own priorities. All right, so with a Republican though, they’re still the most important Democrat. Speaker of the house, senate president, most important Democrats. As soon as there’s a governor, they’re two and three. Okay, so they’re number one when there’s a Republican governor and a Democratic governor often wants to raise taxes, that’s something the legislature hates to do, all right? So, with those things, Patrick and the legislature never got along. Speaker hated Patrick. Senate president hated Patrick. And I never could understand it until I understood this dynamic whereby, they want to be in charge and when there’s a Republican, the Republican speaks nicely to them and begs them for things, and then they can give things, okay? When it’s a Democratic governor, the Democratic governor says, “hey, we’re Democrats. We’re supposed to do this. Let’s go. I’m in the lead,” and they’re not going to get credit, and they have to do some work.

Genevieve DiNatale
Anything else? Is there anything you want to add?

Lou DiNatale
No, but I’d be happy to do this weekly with you.

Genevieve DiNatale
That’s good. I’m going to put this up because you do have fans.