Dems exceeding expectations in the midterms may cost Republicans the presidential in 2024

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Exceeding expectations, not winning, drive post-election press and public reactions. Clinton is supposed to win, but Trump wins. Biden is supposed to win easy, but Trump is closer than expected. By exceeding expectations in 2020, Trump did not have to go away.

There is a food fight in the polling world, driven by new technologies and partisan products that amplify this outcome uncertainty powering the exceeding expectations factor. Today, based on most of the polls a red “Tide” is likely, which is in fact the historical trend. The good news for the Democrats is the “Tide” tag puts expectations for the Republicans at a high-water mark leaving room for results like Kansas and Alaska, surprise Democratic wins, to crater the “Tide” storyline.

The only voice in the wilderness has been Mike Moore, who thinks the Democrats could do better than expected which is significant because he called Trump early. If the Democrats hold the Senate, even by one, and lose the House by less than expected, the Democrats could get the exceeding expectations bump and maybe begin the end of Trump and his trolls’ run.

If the “Tide” arrives, it will sweep the trolls into office where they will immediately begin to consume each other as they desperately try to bring the “government” down. They will try to tank the economy, tacitly endorse Russia’s annexation of Ukraine, and break the back of the social rights movements. This will frighten their economic supporters who have been fueling the populist movements because they wanted a little chaos as an edge to claim more public space for money and their opinions (after all they are GODS) but didn’t want to crater the whole economy, or certainly do not want to get blamed for it.

Trump and the wannabes will begin to battle assuming 2024 is a lock for the Republican nominee. That leaves the Democrats with Biden, and his low approval ratings and no, he’s not going to retire even if he has a stroke. I don’t know how many times everyone, including me, has underestimated this guy but he is starting to look a lot like Lincoln. Let’s say the economy tanks with the arrival of the Confederates. If Biden can stick the downturn on them or claim the recovery over the next two years, he could be reelected and put an end to Trump and his trolls. At that point, I hope folks will finally admit that this old Irish wolf hound could hunt.

About Author

Louis DiNatale

Louis “Lou” DiNatale is a graduate of Pomfret School, Brandeis University and The University of Connecticut Law School and is a widely quoted political analyst appearing in the Boston Globe, NPR, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times and the Economist to name a few.
Lou has been conducting political and consumer research in Massachusetts for over 50 years. In 1990 as the Director of the Center for State and Local Policy at the McCormack Institute (today the McCormack School) at UMass Boston, he created The UMass Poll.
In 2006, Nate Silver of 538, writing for the New York Times, analyzed all publicly available polls in the country and ranked The UMass Poll the best in New England.
In 2006 Lou founded Princeton Research Associates. Our clients have included national foundations such as Pew Research, corporations such as Hilton Hotels, and in Massachusetts, Partners Health Care during the Mass Health campaign as well as The Coalition for Lesbian and Gay Civil Rights during the gay marriage campaign.
Lou has advised five State Senate Presidents and two Speakers over his career. In addition, he was a national campaign advisor to all the Massachusetts Presidential nominees.

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