(Photo Credit: Trump on left: Vanity Fair; Harris on right: Gage Skidmore)
An Emerson College poll conducted from Sept. 3 – 4, 2024, shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by two percentage points among likely U.S. voters, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%. Three percent of voters remain undecided, and 1% plan to support another candidate. This narrow margin mirrors an Emerson College national poll of the last presidential race, conducted during the last week of August 2020, which had President Biden leading Trump by two points, 49% to 47%.
“The 2024 presidential race currently mirrors 2020, with the Democratic lead narrowing from four points to two in national polls,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In 2020, Biden re-established his four-point lead in late September ahead of the first debate; now, we’ll see what impact the debate has on the trajectory of this race.”
Suburban voters are split overall, with 48% supporting Harris and 47% backing Trump. There’s also a gender divide amongst suburban voters, with 57% of suburban men backing Trump and 40% of suburban men backing Harris, while 56% of suburban woman support Harris and 38% support Trump.
On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats hold a slight edge, 48% support the Democratic candidate and 44% support the Republican candidate.
Harris has a favorability rating of 51%, with 49% viewing her unfavorably, while Trump has a 47% favorability rating and 53% unfavorable.
President Biden’s job approval rating is at 41%, with 53% disapproving, showing a slight improvement since mid-August.
The economy remains the top issue for 43% of voters, followed by immigration (15%), threats to democracy (14%), and abortion access (7%). Among those prioritizing the economy, 62% support Trump, while those concerned about threats to democracy overwhelmingly favor Harris, 84% to 12%.
The Emerson poll was conducted on September 3-4, 2024, with a sample of 1,000 likely voters and a credibility interval (which is similar to a poll’s margin of error) of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey was weighted by demographics and turnout modeling based on Census parameters, exit polls, and voter registration data.
The full results can be viewed here.
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