Harris and Trump nearly neck and neck in new Emerson College poll of key swing states

BOSTON — A recent poll of seven swing states conducted by Emerson College and The Hill reveals a very tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Conducted from August 25-28, 2024, the survey finds Harris leading Trump by three points in Michigan (50% to 47%), and by one point in both Georgia (49% to 48%) and Nevada (49% to 48%). Trump holds a one-point advantage in Wisconsin (49% to 48%) and North Carolina (49% to 48%), and leads Harris by three points in Arizona (50% to 47%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania at 48% each.

“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” said Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling. Later adding, “Harris leads Trump among independents in each state, with the exception of Nevada, where Trump leads 50% to 44%. There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020. In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women, however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020.”

Key Poll Findings:

Independent Voters:

• Arizona: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
• Georgia: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
• Michigan: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
• North Carolina: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
• Nevada: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
• Pennsylvania: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
• Wisconsin: Harris 52%, Trump 43%

Voters Under 30:

• Arizona: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
• Georgia: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
• Michigan: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
• North Carolina: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
• Nevada: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
• Pennsylvania: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
• Wisconsin: Harris 54%, Trump 41%

Women Voters:

• Arizona (AZ): Trump 50%, Harris 48%
• Georgia (GA): Harris 54%, Trump 44%
• Michigan (MI): Harris 56%, Trump 41%
• North Carolina (NC): Harris 53%, Trump 46%
• Nevada (NV): Harris 53%, Trump 44%
• Pennsylvania (PA): Harris 54%, Trump 42%
• Wisconsin (WI): Harris 54%, Trump 43%

Male Voters:

• Arizona: Trump 52%, Harris 46%
• Georgia: Trump 53%, Harris 43%
• Michigan: Trump 54%, Harris 43%
• North Carolina: Trump 53%, Harris 43%
• Nevada: Trump 52%, Harris 45%
• Pennsylvania: Trump 55%, Harris 41%
• Wisconsin: Trump 55%, Harris 42%

Top Issues by State:

• Arizona: Economy 31%, Immigration 26%, Housing Affordability 13%
• Georgia: Economy 44%, Housing Affordability 11%, Threats to Democracy 10%
• Michigan: Economy 44%, Threats to Democracy 11%, Housing Affordability 10%
• North Carolina: Economy 48%, Healthcare 9%, Education 8%
• Nevada: Economy 37%, Housing Affordability 15%, Immigration 13%
• Pennsylvania: Economy 51%, Threats to Democracy 11%, Immigration 8%
• Wisconsin: Economy 46%, Threats to Democracy 13%, Housing Affordability 7%

Methodology:

The survey included likely voters across key swing states with varying sample sizes and credibility intervals. For Arizona, the sample size was 720 with a credibility interval of ±3.6%. Georgia and Michigan each had 800 respondents, with a credibility interval of ±3.4% per state. Pennsylvania’s sample size was 950, with a credibility interval of ±3.1%. Nevada had 1,168 participants, resulting in a credibility interval of ±2.8%. In North Carolina, 775 likely voters were surveyed, with a credibility interval of ±3.5%, while Wisconsin had 850 respondents with a credibility interval of ±3.3%.

Data was weighted to reflect statewide voter demographics, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education (sourced from U.S. Census data), voter registration (state secretary of state records), and voter turnout (based on exit polling). Respondents were contacted through their cell phones via MMS-to-web, and landlines using Interactive Voice Response, with respondent data supplied by Aristotle. The survey – which was sponsored by Nexstar Media – was conducted in English from August 25-28, 2024.

In its press release announcing the survey results, Emerson College Polling noted that the findings for demographic subsets—such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity—carry higher credibility intervals due to the smaller sample sizes within these groups. The release also emphasized that the survey results should be interpreted within the poll’s margin of error, with a 95% confidence level, indicating that 1 in 20 results may fall outside the expected range.

The full results of the surveys can be viewed here.

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