BOSTON — A new national Emerson College poll conducted June 24–25, 2025, shows Vice President JD Vance expanding his lead in the 2028 Republican presidential primary, while Pete Buttigieg has overtaken Kamala Harris as the Democratic frontrunner — a marked shift from a similar poll in late 2024.
According to the poll, 46% of Republican voters back Vice President Vance for the 2028 GOP presidential primary. Florida Senator Marco Rubio trails at 12%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 9%, and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5%.
“Vice President Vance has solidified himself as the frontrunner in the 2028 nomination contest, backed by 52% of male Republican primary voters and voters over 60,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
In a hypothetical matchup for the 2028 Democratic primary, former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg is in the lead with 16%, followed closely by former Vice President Kamala Harris at 13%, and California Governor Gavin Newsom at 12%. Other Democratic contenders include Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, each at 7%, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at 5%, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker at 3%. Twenty-three percent of Democratic voters remain undecided.
The results reflect a marked shift since Emerson’s November 2024 poll, when voters were asked to write in their preferred 2028 candidates. At that time, Harris led the Democratic field with 37% support, followed by Newsom at 7%, Buttigieg at 4%, and both Shapiro and Whitmer at 3%. Among Republicans, Vance held 30% support, while DeSantis polled at 5%, Kennedy Jr. at 2%, and Rubio at just 1%.
The poll also examined the outlook for the 2026 congressional midterms, with 43% of voters saying they would support the Democratic candidate on a generic ballot, 40% backing the Republican, and 18% undecided.
“Looking ahead to next year’s Midterm Election, the Democrats have a slight edge over the Republicans, with independents breaking for the Democratic candidate 37% to 27%,” Kimball said. “However, a significant 36% of independents are undecided, so this number is expected to shift.”
President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains steady at 45%, while disapproval has inched up from 45% to 46% since Emerson’s 100-day poll. Voters are divided on the direction of the country, with 52% believing the U.S. is on the wrong track and 48% believing it’s headed in the right direction.
Economic issues top voter concerns, with 32% citing it as their primary issue, followed by threats to democracy at 22%, immigration at 14%, healthcare at 9%, housing affordability at 7%, and crime at 5%.
Regarding immigration policy, 68% of voters favor continuing birthright citizenship for everyone born in the United States. “Support for birthright citizenship policy is highest among voters under 30, at 83%, and lowers steadily as voters’ age increases, to 55% of voters over 70,” Kimball said.
When asked whether the Trump administration was generally truthful, 40% of voters said it was, while 46% said it was untruthful and 14% were unsure. In contrast, just 29% said the news media is truthful, 48% said untruthful, and 24% were unsure—giving the Trump administration an 11-point advantage in perceived credibility over the press. Although trust in both institutions has declined since February 2017, the shift has been more pronounced for the media. At the start of Trump’s first term, 49% of voters viewed his administration as truthful and 48% as untruthful; the news media was seen as truthful by 39% and untruthful by 53%. The latest results show that while trust in both Trump and the news media has declined since 2017, confidence in the media—already lower to begin with—has deteriorated further, reinforcing Trump’s edge in perceived truthfulness despite his own dip in credibility.
A majority of voters (57%) believe a world war is likely within the next four years—a two-point increase since Emerson’s March 2025 poll—while 43% say it is unlikely. When asked whether Israel and Iran are more likely to achieve peace or enter a major war in the coming weeks, 30% of voters said a major war is likely, 28% anticipated peace, and 42% were unsure.
Methodology
The survey included 1,000 active registered voters nationwide and was conducted June 24–25, 2025, with a credibility interval of ±3 percentage points. Results were weighted by age, gender, race, education, party registration, and region, based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. According to Emerson College Polling, a credibility interval is similar to a traditional margin of error and reflects the range within which the true value lies with 95% confidence. Data was collected through MMS-to-web texts sent to a list of cellphones provided by Aristotle and from an online panel supplied by CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code.
